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Daniel Gile November 27, 2005 Probabilistic
laws lie somewhere between determinism, where a phenomenon is certain, and
total uncertainty, where one has no idea as to whether the phenomenon will
materialize and how. Probabilistic laws attempt to quantify uncertainty. For
instance, if it is known that the mean height of males in a population is Uncertainty in empirical
observation of phenomena may be due to the probabilistic nature of a phenomenon (i.e. variation is an intrinsic
characteristic of the phenomenon). It may also be due to environmental reasons: the underlying entity itself may be
regular in its nature and form, but its manifestations are influenced by
external factors which are themselves probabilistic in nature or too
complicated in their interactions with the phenomenon at hand to be
predictable. Finally, uncertainty may be due to limitations or weaknesses in
the detection and measurement of the phenomenon by man. In many cases, researchers
investigate the existence of a trend, not its quantitative contours. For
instance, in TS, the explicitation hypothesis
assumes the existence of a tendency, not how strong it is or to what extent a
TT will be more explicit than the ST. In such a case, researchers are
interested not in quantitative variation, but in its occurrence as such. If such occurrence is irregular,
this does not necessarily mean that the law is not true, or that it is
probabilistic in nature. Other factors may have prevented it from being
manifest. Lunar eclipses do not become probabilistic just because cloudy
skies sometimes prevent people from seeing them. The trend to make TTs more explicit than STs may
be universal without necessarily being manifest everywhere, for instance if
cultural conventions or the client’s brief or time pressure etc.
inhibit its expression in a particular set of translations. Assuming that a phenomenon is probabilistic
or “conditional” just because in empirical studies, it is found
not to occur regularly or is found to occur only under certain conditions is
the same as assuming that lunar eclipses are probabilistic or conditional
upon the absence of clouds in the sky. When irregularities occur, the natural
procedure in research is to try to find what causes this irregularity,
starting with the removal of environmental factors which may interfere, for
instance through experimental research. Only when it is thought that all
interfering environmental factors and observer-related factors have been
removed and there is still irregularity in the occurrence of the phenomenon
will one conclude that this irregularity suggests
that the law is probabilistic. |
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